BackNewletter Issue 28th November 2011
28 November 2011
Overview
Last week saw increasing fears of slowing global growth/final
demand and further EU sovereign debt contagion. France's ability to
hold on to its AAA rating is at risk. S&P warned that EU
recession would be a negative for the regional credit outlook. Lack
of bids at the German 10yr bond auction was no less than a disaster
for investors' morale.
The Euro zone flash November composite PMI at 47.2 was the third
month below 50, suggesting a contraction of economic activity. The
data IS consistent with Q4 GDP contracting about 0.5% against the
0.2% growth reported for Q3. Manufacturing PMI slipped to 46.4 from
47.1 the previous month and Germany, reported its second month with
manufacturing below 50.
The drop in China's flash November HSBC manufacturing PMI back
below 50 was negative growth news. The measure slipped to 48.0 from
the final 51.1 in October. This was the lowest reading in 32
months.
In regional news, Dubai International Capital (DIC), a unit of
Dubai Holding, the conglomerate owned by the ruler, has agreed the
terms for a $2.4 billion debt restructuring with its creditors. It
should be noted that DIC's assets include UK hotel chain
Travelodge, Doncasters and European aluminum maker Almatis Holdings
BV.
Furthermore, Fitch Ratings has assigned Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank's
(ADIB) USD 500m 3.78% trust certificates due November 2016, a final
rating of 'A+.'
Friday Closing Levels
|
SP500
|
1,158.67
|
EUR/USD 1.3238
|
UST 10Y Yield
|
1.97
|
|
FTSE100
|
5,164.65
|
GBP/USD 1.5450
|
Bund 10Y Yield
|
2.179
|
|
DAX
|
5,492.87
|
USD/CHF 0.9309
|
Gilt 10Y Yield
|
2.286
|
|
Hang Seng
|
17,689.48
|
AUD/USD 0.9717
|
Gold
|
1,681.20
|
|
Nikkei
|
8,160.01
|
USD/JPY 77.72
|
Silver
|
31.14
|
|
ADX Index
|
2,418.13
|
USD/INR 52.13
|
Copper (3m)
|
7,296
|
|
Dubai Index
|
1,348.59
|
EUR/GBP 0.8575
|
WTI Crude
|
96.97
|
Euro Area
The Euro fell to its lowest levels in more than seven weeks
against the USD on Friday and is poised to weaken further after a
disappointing Italian bond auction raised fears that the Euro zone
crisis was deepening. The Euro had earlier lost more than 2
percent after poor demand at a German bond auction on
Wednesday.
S&P added to the worries as it lowered Belgium's rating by a
notch to AA and placed its credit outlook to negative. This is
raising alarms after Portugal was also downgraded earlier in the
week.
UK
Sterling inched up from a seven-week low against the USD on
Friday as risk appetite improved and it advanced against the Euro,
which is already badly affected by concerns over lack of
progress on efforts to contain the Eurozone debt crisis.
The traders had cited good demand for the pound from UK
corporates. Gains were also driven by a bounce in stock markets,
although the pound's upside is expected to be
limited.
Japan
According to the Japanese Finance Minister Azumi, Japan will not
hesitate to respond to speculative currency moves to shield
exporters from a strong yen. In a strong statement he added that
unless the European leaders provide details of how they will limit
their sovereign debt woes, it will be difficult for turbulence in
markets to subside.
Japan had earlier sold nearly $100 billion worth of yen on Oct
31, after the yen hit a record high of 75.31 to rein in its
high-flying currency and protect exporters.
US
The official U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA)
weekly petroleum data for the week ending November 18 showed Crude
oil stocks posting a larger than expected decline due to lower
imports and an increase in refinery inputs. The dynamics were in
line with analysts' expectations but the magnitude was
significantly larger.
The Week Ahead
The US Labor Department's monthly jobs data is due next Friday
and if it falls short of expectations, the Euro could retrace its
four straight weeks of decline against the greenback. The
unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 9.0% while the
median forecast for the non-farm payrolls is at 115K.
In the UK, the Office of Budget Responsibility is expected to
cut its economic growth projections this week. British Finance
Minister George Osborne - in his autumn statement - is likely to
admit that the government faces an uphill task in meeting its
deficit targets given slowing growth.
This Week's Data
|
Date
|
Country/
Curr.
|
Event
|
GMT
|
CONSENSUS
|
PREVIOUS
|
|
21-Nov Mon
|
JPY
|
JPY Coincident Index
|
05:00
|
|
88.90
|
|
|
CAD
|
CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM)
|
13:30
|
0.70%
|
0.30%
|
|
|
USD
|
USD Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
|
13:30
|
0.19
|
-0.20
|
|
|
USD
|
USD Existing Home Sales
|
15:00
|
4.80M
|
4.90M
|
|
|
USD
|
USD Existing Home Sales (MoM)
|
15:00
|
-2.20%
|
-3.20%
|
|
22-Nov Tue
|
JPY
|
JPY Supermarket Sales (YoY)
|
05:00
|
|
-3.60%
|
|
|
GBP
|
GBP Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds)
|
09:30
|
-1.0B
|
20.3B
|
|
|
GBP
|
GBP PSNB ex Interventions
|
09:30
|
6.5B
|
13.0B
|
|
|
GBP
|
GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (Pounds)
|
09:30
|
3.8B
|
10.2B
|
|
|
CAD
|
CAD Retail Sales (MoM)
|
13:30
|
0.50%
|
0.60%
|
|
|
CAD
|
CAD Retail Sales Less Autos (MoM)
|
13:30
|
0.40%
|
0.40%
|
|
|
USD
|
USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized)
|
13:30
|
2.50%
|
2.50%
|
|
|
USD
|
USD Personal Consumption
|
13:30
|
2.40%
|
2.40%
|
|
|
USD
|
USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index
|
13:30
|
2.50%
|
2.50%
|
|
|
USD
|
USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ)
|
13:30
|
2.10%
|
2.10%
|
|
|
EUR
|
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
|
15:00
|
-21.00
|
-19.90
|
|
|
USD
|
USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
|
15:00
|
-2.00
|
-6.00
|
|
|
AUD
|
AUD Construction Work Done
|
00:30
|
2.00%
|
-0.10%
|
|
23-Nov Wed
|
EUR
|
EUR French Own-Company Production Outlook
|
07:45
|
|
3.00
|
|
|
EUR
|
EUR French Production Outlook Indicator
|
07:45
|
-27.00
|
-30.00
|
|
|
EUR
|
EUR French Business Confidence Indicator
|
07:45
|
95.00
|
97.00
|
|
|
EUR
|
EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing
|
08:00
|
48.00
|
48.50
|
|
|
EUR
|
EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services
|
08:00
|
45.00
|
44.60
|
|
|
EUR
|
EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing
|
08:30
|
48.50
|
49.10
|
|
|
EUR
|
EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services
|
08:30
|
50.00
|
50.60
|
|
|
EUR
|
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite
|
09:00
|
46.10
|
46.50
|
|
|
EUR
|
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing
|
09:00
|
46.50
|
47.10
|
|
|
EUR
|
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services
|
09:00
|
46.00
|
46.40
|
|
|
GBP
|
GBP Bank of England Minutes
|
09:30
|
|
|
|
|
GBP
|
GBP BBA Loans for House Purchase
|
09:30
|
33000.00
|
33502.00
|
|
|
EUR
|
EUR Euro-Zone Industrial New Orders (YoY)
|
10:00
|
6.10%
|
5.90%
|
|
|
EUR
|
EUR Euro-Zone Industrial New Orders s.a. (MoM)
|
10:00
|
-2.70%
|
1.40%
|
|
|
USD
|
USD Durable Goods Orders
|
13:30
|
-1.20%
|
-1.50%
|
|
|
USD
|
USD Durables Ex Transportation
|
13:30
|
0.00%
|
0.60%
|
|
|
USD
|
USD Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air
|
13:30
|
-1.00%
|
0.90%
|
|
|
USD
|
USD Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
|
13:30
|
|
-1.00%
|
|
|
USD
|
USD Personal Income
|
13:30
|
0.30%
|
0.10%
|
|
|
USD
|
USD Personal Spending
|
13:30
|
0.30%
|
0.70%
|
|
|
USD
|
USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (YoY)
|
13:30
|
2.70%
|
2.90%
|
|
|
USD
|
USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (MoM)
|
13:30
|
0.10%
|
0.00%
|
|
|
USD
|
USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY)
|
13:30
|
1.70%
|
1.60%
|
|
|
USD
|
USD Initial Jobless Claims
|
13:30
|
390K
|
391K
|
|
|
USD
|
USD Continuing Claims
|
13:30
|
3621K
|
3623K
|
|
|
USD
|
USD U. of Michigan Confidence
|
14:55
|
64.50
|
64.20
|
|
|
USD
|
USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
|
15:30
|
500K
|
-1056K
|
|
|
USD
|
USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory
|
15:30
|
-1250K
|
-2136K
|
|
|
USD
|
USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories
|
15:30
|
1000K
|
992K
|
|
|
USD
|
USD Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity
|
16:00
|
9.00
|
8.00
|
|
|
USD
|
USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
|
17:00
|
19.00
|
19.00
|
|
|
NZD
|
NZD Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars)
|
21:45
|
-450M
|
-789M
|
|
|
NZD
|
NZD Exports (New Zealand dollars)
|
21:45
|
3.76B
|
3.44B
|
|
|
NZD
|
NZD Imports (New Zealand dollars)
|
21:45
|
4.23B
|
4.23B
|
|
|
NZD
|
NZD Balance (YTD) (New Zealand dollars)
|
21:45
|
490M
|
689M
|
|
24-Nov Thu
|
EUR
|
EUR German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a. (YoY)
|
07:00
|
2.50%
|
2.50%
|
|
|
EUR
|
EUR German Domestic Demand
|
07:00
|
0.50%
|
0.20%
|
|
|
EUR
|
EUR German Exports
|
07:00
|
1.60%
|
2.80%
|
|
|
EUR
|
EUR German Capital Investment
|
07:00
|
1.20%
|
0.40%
|
|
|
EUR
|
EUR German Government Spending
|
07:00
|
0.20%
|
0.60%
|
|
|
EUR
|
EUR German Construction Investment
|
07:00
|
-0.10%
|
-0.40%
|
|
|
EUR
|
EUR German Imports
|
07:00
|
1.50%
|
2.90%
|
|
|
EUR
|
EUR German Private Consumption
|
07:00
|
0.50%
|
-0.60%
|
|
|
EUR
|
EUR German Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ)
|
07:00
|
0.50%
|
0.50%
|
|
|
EUR
|
EUR German Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (YoY)
|
07:00
|
2.60%
|
2.60%
|
|
|
EUR
|
EUR German IFO - Business Climate
|
09:00
|
105.50
|
106.40
|
|
|
EUR
|
EUR German IFO - Current Assessment
|
09:00
|
115.00
|
116.70
|
|
|
EUR
|
EUR German IFO - Expectations
|
09:00
|
96.00
|
97.00
|
|
|
EUR
|
EUR Italian Consumer Confidence Index s.a.
|
09:00
|
92.40
|
93.30
|
|
|
GBP
|
GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)
|
09:30
|
0.50%
|
0.50%
|
|
|
GBP
|
GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY)
|
09:30
|
0.50%
|
0.50%
|
|
|
GBP
|
GBP Private Consumption
|
09:30
|
0.20%
|
-0.80%
|
|
|
GBP
|
GBP Government Spending
|
09:30
|
0.50%
|
1.10%
|
|
|
GBP
|
GBP Gross Fixed Capital Formation
|
09:30
|
1.10%
|
1.70%
|
|
|
GBP
|
GBP Exports
|
09:30
|
0.80%
|
-1.30%
|
|
|
GBP
|
GBP Imports
|
09:30
|
0.70%
|
-0.30%
|
|
|
GBP
|
GBP Index of Services (MoM)
|
09:30
|
0.00%
|
0.40%
|
|
|
GBP
|
GBP Index of Services (3Mo3M)
|
09:30
|
0.60%
|
0.40%
|
|
|
GBP
|
GBP CBI Trends Total Orders
|
11:00
|
-19.00
|
-18.00
|
|
|
GBP
|
GBP CBI Trends Selling Prices
|
11:00
|
0.00
|
1.00
|
|
|
JPY
|
JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY)
|
23:30
|
-0.50%
|
-0.50%
|
|
|
JPY
|
JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY)
|
23:30
|
-0.30%
|
-0.40%
|
|
|
JPY
|
JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY)
|
23:30
|
-0.90%
|
-1.00%
|
|
|
JPY
|
JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY)
|
23:30
|
-0.20%
|
0.00%
|
|
|
JPY
|
JPY National Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY)
|
23:30
|
-0.10%
|
0.20%
|
|
|
JPY
|
JPY National Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY)
|
23:30
|
-0.90%
|
-0.40%
|
|
|
JPY
|
JPY Corporate Service Price (YoY)
|
23:50
|
-0.10%
|
-0.10%
|
|
|
GBP
|
GBP Bank of England Housing Equity Withdrawal (Pounds)
|
|
-£6.0B
|
-£5.8B
|
|
|
EUR
|
EUR German Import Price Index (MoM)
|
|
-0.20%
|
0.60%
|
|
|
EUR
|
EUR German Import Price Index (YoY)
|
|
6.90%
|
6.90%
|
|
25-Nov Fri
|
EUR
|
EUR French Consumer Confidence Indicator
|
07:45
|
81.00
|
82.00
|
|
|
EUR
|
EUR Italian Retail Sales s.a. (MoM)
|
09:00
|
-0.20%
|
-0.10%
|
|
|
EUR
|
EUR Italian Retail Sales (YoY)
|
09:00
|
0.50%
|
-0.30%
|
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